Module 3
Win rates and base rates: what a percentage can and cannot tell you
‘What is our win rate?’ sounds like one question and is at least five. Win rate among cases that were decided, among all cases that were filed, among claims of one kind, among all disputes including ones that never reached a court? The answer depends on the denominator. Then there is the question of how much a rate can be trusted: nine wins in twelve cases is not 75%, it is a rough guess. And there is the question of whether two rates really differ: a lawyer who wins 70% and another who wins 55% may be no different at all, or the one who wins less may be the better lawyer if they take harder cases. This module teaches the arithmetic and the reasoning behind a trustworthy win rate: denominators, base rates, intervals, comparisons and the paradox that catches even careful analysts. The Win Rate Explorer in the labs lets you work with invented counts.
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See what is included in All-Access →General education on analysing litigation data, using invented cases, courts and figures. It is not legal advice and does not predict the result of any real case. Rules on court data, data protection, confidentiality and the analysis of judges differ between countries and change: check the rules that apply to you.
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