Module 6
Forecasting a case and scoring your forecasts: from base rate to probability, and whether you were any good
Every time a lawyer says ‘we should win this’, ‘it is a coin toss’ or ‘we have a good chance’, the lawyer has made a forecast. Almost no lawyer ever checks how good their forecasts are. Imagine a doctor or a weather forecaster who never looked at what actually happened. This module teaches the discipline of forecasting: start from the base rate, adjust for the particular facts in a way you can explain, put a number and a range on the result, write it down before the outcome and score it afterwards. It shows how the Brier score and a calibration table reveal habits such as overconfidence, and what you can reasonably expect from a prediction model and how to test one. It builds on the Base-Rate Adjuster, the Calibration Game and the decision trees in Legal Risk Quantification. The Forecast Scoreboard in the labs scores twelve invented forecasts.
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See what is included in All-Access →General education on analysing litigation data, using invented cases, courts and figures. It is not legal advice and does not predict the result of any real case. Rules on court data, data protection, confidentiality and the analysis of judges differ between countries and change: check the rules that apply to you.
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