Law and Data · Pilot

Legal Risk Quantification

Clients ask two questions: what are our chances? and what could this cost us? The usual answer is “it depends.” This course teaches you to answer with honest numbers: a probability, a range, an expected cost, and a clear picture of how uncertain it all is.

It works in any country, because the method does not depend on any one legal system. You need only spreadsheet-level maths. Every lab runs in your browser, and you build one running risk file for a fictional client, Alderwick Exports, before a capstone on a second client.

Pilot. Everything here is open to try while we finish it. Quiz scores are not saved yet, and there is no certificate yet. Tell us what is confusing and we will fix it.

Module 1
From “high, medium, low” to numbers
Why loose words fail, and what one word does to a decision. Lab: Words-to-Numbers.
Module 2
Estimating likelihood
Base rates, adjusting for the facts, and being exactly as sure as you deserve to be. Labs: Base-Rate Adjuster and Calibration Game.
Module 3
Estimating impact
Fees, damages, interest and lost business, with low, likely and high values. Lab: Impact Builder.
Module 4
Expected value and decision trees
Settle or fight, and the break-even chance. Lab: Decision Tree Builder.
Module 5
Uncertainty and simulation
Why one number misleads, and how to show a range of outcomes. Lab: Simulator.
Module 6
Risk registers and heat maps
Scoring, ranking, and whether each fix pays for itself. Lab: Register Builder.
Module 7
Communicating risk honestly
The one-page memo, charts that do not mislead, and the limits of the numbers. Labs: Spot the Misleading Chart and Memo Studio.
Capstone
The Ceolwin case file
A fresh client and four matters. Use every tool, then write the board memo.

This course teaches a method with invented figures and fictional parties. It is not legal advice, and its numbers are for practice.